Climate Change Expected to Transform Avalanche Patterns in Switzerland by 2100
Climate change is projected to lead to a decrease in overall avalanche occurrences in Switzerland, but an increase in wet snow avalanches by 2100. Rising winter temperatures are likely to affect snowpack dynamics, with significant implications for avalanche risks in the region.
The impact of climate change on avalanche behavior in Switzerland suggests a future landscape marked by fewer overall avalanches, yet a heightened risk of wet snow avalanches by the year 2100. Researchers from the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) predict that, in a warming scenario where winter temperatures increase by approximately five degrees Celsius, the frequency of dry snow avalanches will diminish. However, the prevalence of wet snow avalanches, characterized by snowpack moisture due to melting or rain, is expected to rise notably above the tree line. Although the overall frequency of avalanches may reduce, exceptional snowfall occurrences could still lead to larger avalanches forming at higher elevations. If these avalanches occur in defined channels, they could traverse to valley locations, similar to current patterns. Additionally, the SLF conducted extensive studies across seven Swiss locations, including Weissfluhjoch and Zermatt, to understand the implications of climate change on avalanche dynamics across the Alpine region, findings which are relevant to other mountain ranges exhibiting similar climates such as Canada’s Columbia Mountains. The only effective preventative measure recommended by researchers for at-risk ski resorts is their temporary closure to ensure safety.
Climate change continues to alter weather patterns across the globe, with significant implications for ecosystems and human safety. In regions like Switzerland, where mountainous terrain is common, these changes exacerbate risks such as avalanches. Traditional patterns of snow accumulation and melting are being undermined, leading scientists to investigate the dynamics of these events in light of expected global warming. This research from the SLF highlights the necessity of adapting to new realities of climate-related risks in mountainous areas, particularly concerning wet snow avalanche activity.
In summary, as Switzerland faces the repercussions of climate change, the landscape of avalanche behavior is poised to change significantly by 2100. While the prevalence of dry snow avalanches may decrease, the risk of wet snow avalanches will escalate due to increased moisture in the snowpack. This necessitates precautionary measures, including the closure of ski resorts in vulnerable areas to mitigate risks associated with these changes.
Original Source: www.swissinfo.ch
