NOAA Predicts Above-Average Activity for 2025 Hurricane Season
The 2025 hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends November 30. NOAA forecasts an above-average year for the Atlantic Basin with a 60% chance for many storms, predicting 13 to 19 named storms and 6 to 10 hurricanes, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes. The organization is confident in its forecast due to specific ocean and atmospheric conditions.
The 2025 hurricane season is set to commence on June 1 and will wrap up on November 30. According to NOAA, this year’s outlook indicates a high likelihood of above-average activity in the Atlantic Basin. Specifically, the agency has assessed a 60% probability for an above-average season, in contrast to a 30% chance for a normal season and a mere 10% for below-normal activity.
NOAA’s forecast suggests that between 13 and 19 named storms will occur, with estimates predicting that 6 to 10 of these may escalate into hurricanes, while 3 to 5 could become major hurricanes. The confidence level in this prediction stands at 70%, reflecting the agency’s strong belief in their assessment of the coming months.
Several significant factors underlie this year’s expectations. Conditions leading to this prediction include the current ENSO-neutral phase, elevated ocean temperatures, decreased wind shear, and an anticipated uptick in activity from the West African Monsoon, which plays a critical role in hurricane development.
The interaction of weaker trade winds alongside warmer sea temperatures provides an optimal environment for the formation of tropical storms. In essence, these warm waters contribute vital energy to storms, while the reduced wind shear allows for more robust storm development.
The West African Monsoon is pivotal in forecasting Atlantic tropical storms because a majority of these storms’ origins trace back to disturbances off the coast of Africa. Thus, its anticipated activity can significantly impact storm dynamics as the season unfolds.
Stay informed by tuning into KTEN News for comprehensive forecasts, and don’t forget to download the KTEN weather app for the latest updates on the tropical outlook.
In summary, NOAA predicts that the 2025 hurricane season, beginning in June, will likely be above average with a range of 13 to 19 named storms, of which many are expected to strengthen significantly. Key atmospheric conditions, such as increased ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds, along with the West African Monsoon’s activity, are driving these projections. Preparedness during this period is critical as these forecasts highlight the potential for dangerous weather activity in the months ahead.
Original Source: www.kten.com
