Analysis of Early Voting Trends by Party Affiliation in Virginia
Sixteen days before the November 2024 election, early in-person votes from likely Republicans are nearly equal to those from likely Democrats, a first in recent cycles, while Democrats maintain a significant advantage in mail-in votes. Analysis conducted by VPAP highlights these trends, with statistical estimates derived from the Virginia Daily Absentee List and L2 Political.
As of 16 days prior to the election on November 5, 2024, early in-person voting patterns indicate that probable Republican voters are casting votes at a rate comparable to their Democratic counterparts, marking a notable increase for Republicans compared to the same point in previous election cycles from 2021 to 2023. Nonetheless, likely Democratic voters maintain a substantial lead in mail-in ballots, achieving a better than two-to-one advantage, consistent with trends observed in past elections. The data, which is accessible through VPAP’s Early Voting Dashboard, reflects a comprehensive analysis of early voting statistics across various localities. It is important to note that Virginia does not necessitate party registration for voters, and ballots are counted strictly on election day. To derive the party affiliations of voters, the Virginia Daily Absentee List has been matched with data from L2 Political, a firm specializing in political data analytics. This methodology employs an algorithm that estimates voting tendencies based on historical participation in primary elections and demographic characteristics. Due to limitations in data availability, estimates for the 2020 election were omitted due to a high percentage of voters categorized as “Unknown.”
The article discusses the early voting landscape in Virginia as the state approaches its November 2024 election. This analysis is framed around the partisan breakdown observed in early in-person and mail-in voting. Given that Virginia operates without mandatory party registration, voters’ party affiliations must be estimated using a combination of voting history and demographic data provided by L2 Political. This framework provides insight into the electoral behavior of likely voters in a highly competitive environment as election day nears.
In summary, the early voting data reveals a competitive landscape as likely Republican voters increase their participation in early in-person voting, matching that of Democratic voters for the first time in recent election cycles. However, Democratic voters still enjoy strong support through mail-in ballots, constructing a complex electoral narrative as both parties prepare for the upcoming election.
Original Source: www.vpap.org
