Early Atlantic Disturbance: A Rare Yet Possible Phenomenon Ahead of Hurricane Season
The National Hurricane Center began tracking the first Atlantic disturbance for 2025, which is atypical so early in the year but not entirely unusual. Previous years have seen early disturbances, with only 41 recorded since 1851 during this period. Current developments suggest low chances for tropical storm formation, highlighting the rarity of March cyclones in particular.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began tracking the first Atlantic disturbance of 2025 on a Monday, significantly before the official hurricane season commences on June 1. While it is indeed uncommon to observe named storms at this time, NHC meteorologist Robbie Berg clarified that some tropical activity during the spring is not entirely unusual.
In 2024, the NHC identified its first Atlantic disturbance on April 24, a low-pressure area located approximately 900 miles northwest of Cabo Verde, which quickly dissipated due to strong winds. Following this, a tropical wave developed near Hispaniola in May. Notably, the previous year saw an area of low pressure evolve into a subtropical storm off the northeastern U.S. coast in January, marking the first cyclone of that year.
The disturbance recorded this year involved a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms situated about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. However, it was not anticipated to escalate into a tropical storm, and the NHC discontinued tracking the system by the following Tuesday.
Robbie Berg mentioned, “NHC tracks non-tropical systems that have any potential to take on tropical characteristics. That said, yesterday’s system had a very low chance — only 10%”. He noted that weather systems exist on a continuum, ranging from fully tropical hurricanes to non-tropical winter storms, with the potential for non-tropical systems to briefly acquire tropical features.
Berg noted that since 1851, there have been 41 recorded tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic from January to May, prior to the hurricane season. However, March occurrences remain exceptionally rare, according to hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University. He pointed out that the sole tropical cyclone documented in March was a Category 2 hurricane that impacted the Leeward Islands and Caribbean in 1908.
In conclusion, while the tracking of early Atlantic disturbances is uncommon, it is not without precedent. The current disturbance is an example of non-tropical systems potentially taking on tropical characteristics, albeit with a low likelihood. Historically, early season systems are rare, especially in March, indicating the unique nature of such events as noted by climate experts.
Original Source: www.nola.com
