Impact of Extreme Rainfall and Urbanization on Gaborone’s Flooding

Severe flooding in Gaborone, Botswana, in February 2025, caused 31 fatalities and displaced over 5,000 residents due to extreme rainfall and rapid urbanization. A study analyzed the incident, linking a 60% increase in rainfall intensity to human-induced climate change. Ongoing improvements to infrastructure and disaster preparedness are vital for future resilience against similar events.

In February 2025, heavy rainfall in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa resulted in severe flooding, claiming at least 31 lives and displacing around 5,000 individuals, notably impacting Gaborone. This disaster was characterized by a drastic failure of drainage systems due to rapid urbanization and population growth, leaving many areas isolated and emergency services struggling to respond.

Researchers from various international institutions conducted a study to determine the impact of human-induced climate change on this extreme weather event. By analyzing rainfall data from February 16th to 20th, they focused on the 5-day maximum rainfall and assessed how often such events occur based on historical data. Their findings indicate that the flooding experienced was due to a rare meteorological occurrence, with a return period estimated between 40 to 200 years depending on different data sources.

The study revealed that extreme rainfall events, such as those in February 2025, are likely exacerbated by ongoing climate change, with an increase in intensity of about 60% compared to a pre-warming period. However, results from climate models widely differed, indicating inconsistencies in projecting the impacts of climate change. Some models indicated a significant increase in extreme weather events while others suggested no change or a potential decrease.

Forecasts for a climate scenario with a temperature increase of 2.6 °C show a likelihood of greater frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, suggesting a greater climate change signal in the future. This indicates a direct link between human-induced climate change and the flooding in southern Botswana, though the exact quantification of this impact remains uncertain.

The urban impacts of the flooding were intensified by inadequate infrastructure, which was overwhelmed during the extreme event, leading to severe disruptions, particularly in health services. Efforts are underway to improve flood resilience, including enhancing drainage systems, regulating land use, and improving disaster preparedness. A holistic approach that involves evaluating multiple hazards in urban planning will be critical in bolstering resilience to future extreme weather events.

The catastrophic flooding in Gaborone and surrounding areas in February 2025 highlighted the severe implications of increased extreme rainfall and the inadequacy of urban infrastructure in coping with such events. Human-induced climate change played a significant role in intensifying the rainfall, although precise measurement of this influence remains elusive. Ongoing efforts to strengthen infrastructure and enhance resilience are essential to mitigate the impacts of future climatic incidents.

Original Source: www.preventionweb.net