Scientists Warn of Increasing Extreme Rainfall in Kenya Due to Climate Change
A climate study indicates that heavy rainfall events in Kenya are increasing in intensity due to global warming. The report highlights that both frequency and severity of these events are expected to rise, leading to more flooding and potential agricultural impacts. Disparities in rainfall patterns may leave some areas vulnerable to drought, necessitating urgent preparedness measures.
A recent climate study has revealed that heavy rainfall events in Kenya are predicted to grow in intensity, with extreme precipitation becoming increasingly common. This research, published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, indicates that global warming is influencing shifts in rainfall patterns across East Africa, posing significant risks to agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
According to the study conducted by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), there will be a notable increase in both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events due to higher greenhouse gas emissions. This alarming trend is expected to result in more frequent flooding across East Africa, including Kenya.
The projections concerning Kenya’s rainfall patterns align with the seasonal outlooks from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). These agencies have forecast erratic and extreme rainfall for the upcoming March-April-May (MAM) season, with varying predictions based on geographical areas.
KMD’s latest projection anticipates near-to-above-average rainfall in western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley while predicting below-average rainfall in northeastern Kenya and coastal areas. Their forecast indicates a likelihood of a normal to late onset of the season, with an uneven distribution of rainfall.
Similarly, ICPAC’s findings predict below-normal rainfall across much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, raising concerns of water shortages and protracted dry spells. Although deficits are expected in some areas, the climate study suggests that when rainfall occurs, it will likely be in the form of more intense bursts, adversely affecting agriculture and local livestock production.
The potential impacts of severe rainfall events could include flash floods that damage infrastructure, displace communities, and contribute to the spread of waterborne diseases. The study emphasizes these models, simulating extreme precipitation events over Lake Victoria, eastern Congo, and the Ethiopian highlands, with conditions predicted to worsen under high-emission scenarios.
Kenya has historically faced rainfall variability, leading to cycles of drought and flooding, which have socioeconomic implications. Significant flooding incidents, such as those experienced in Nairobi and Kisumu in 2024, have displaced numerous individuals, prompting concerns that climate change may precipitate more frequent extreme weather events.
While some regions may see heavy rainfall, others in Kenya remain at risk from drought conditions. According to the study, the risk of drought is neutral or slightly declining for specific areas in Somalia and eastern Ethiopia, but regions such as Tanzania are expected to experience a worsening of drought conditions.
Additionally, temperature forecasts from the Kenya Met suggest warmer-than-normal conditions nationwide, especially in the coastal and northern regions. The interplay between rising temperatures and intense rainfall could result in increased evaporation rates, leading to more robust storms and exacerbating the impacts of significant precipitation.
The findings from the recent climate study underscore the increasing threat of extreme rainfall and flooding in Kenya due to climate change. Projections indicate heightened rainfall intensity and frequency, posing risks to agriculture, infrastructure, and the well-being of communities. While some areas may face severe flooding, others could still struggle with drought. Urgent preparedness measures and improved disaster response strategies are vital to address the challenges presented by shifting rainfall patterns.
Original Source: www.kenyans.co.ke
