Rising Challenges: Climate Change and the Ineffectiveness of La Niña in a Warmer Future
Climate change is becoming increasingly severe, overshadowing the cooling effects of La Niña. The IMD has forecasted an early summer with intense heat waves, following an unusually warm February. Experts highlight the shifting dynamics in weather patterns caused by climate change and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, predicting that El Niño may become more frequent while La Niña’s effectiveness wanes.
Climate change is becoming more pronounced, with scientists indicating that the cooling effects of La Niña may be less effective in a warming future. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an early summer marked by elevated temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Additionally, India recorded its warmest February since 1901, accompanied by the fifth lowest rainfall since 2001.
Research reveals a trend toward warmer winters and shorter springs, collectively termed ‘year-to-year variability.’ Arpita Mondal, from the Centre for Climate Studies at IIT Bombay, noted the recent dry winter and emphasized that rainfall is vital for natural cooling. Raghu Murtugudde, also from IIT Bombay, observed a pattern of global temperature anomalies linked to jet stream fluctuations.
The dynamics of El Niño and La Niña, critical phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), also contribute to climate trends. Vimal Mishra from IIT Gandhinagar explained that El Niño-like conditions yield warmer spring temperatures, while La Niña typically introduces cooler days. ENSO cycles oscillate between the warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases, each lasting between two to seven years.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently reported that the current weak La Niña is expected to be short-lived. The forecast suggests a 60% chance of La Niña returning in mid-2024. Furthermore, recent data indicates that global temperatures may be significantly above historical averages, with sea surface temperatures remaining higher than normal.
Murtugudde commented on recent climate patterns, noting unexpected warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific. Studies project that El Niño events could become more frequent and severe in the future. Notably, the 2023-2024 El Niño is among the strongest recorded, contributing to heightened global temperatures and extreme weather events.
India faced 536 heatwave days in summer 2024, the highest in 14 years, with particularly high temperatures in North-West India. Mishra cautioned that the visible impact of climate change persists even in years predicted to be ENSO-neutral. The WMO also forecasts a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2025, underscoring the challenges posed by climate change, whereby El Niño may exacerbate heat issues while La Niña’s cooling potential diminishes.
In conclusion, climate change’s influence continues to grow, and the effectiveness of La Niña in mitigating warming may diminish in the coming years. With trends indicating warmer weather and extreme heat events, it is crucial for policymakers and scientists to address these challenges proactively. As global weather patterns evolve, the implications for regions like India could become increasingly severe without significant action.
Original Source: www.theweek.in
