Climate Change Heightens Global Urban Fire Risks, Study Reveals

A study published in Nature Cities reveals that climate change is likely to heighten the risk of urban fires globally. Approximately 300,000 fire-related deaths could occur by 2100 if global temperatures rise by over 4 degrees Celsius. The study suggests substantial increases in outdoor and vehicle fires, with recommendations for enhanced fire management strategies.

A recent study published in the online journal Nature Cities indicates that climate change poses an increasing risk of urban fires globally in the coming decades. Researchers analyzed fire data alongside monthly maximum temperatures from over 2,800 cities across 20 countries, representing more than 20% of the global population. The findings suggest that surpassing a 4 degrees Celsius increase in global temperatures could lead to approximately 300,000 fire-related deaths and over a million injuries by 2100. Conversely, limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius could potentially halve these impacts.

In scenarios with high carbon emissions, the study predicts a significant rise in various types of fires. Specifically, outdoor fires may increase by 22.2%, while vehicle fires could rise by 11.6% by the year 2100. Interestingly, it is projected that building fires may slightly decline by 4.6%. Furthermore, for every 1-degree Celsius increase in air temperature, the incidence of vehicle fires is expected to rise by 3.3%, accompanied by a 6.9% increase in outdoor fires.

The research emphasizes how climate change influences the frequency of urban fires, including those in buildings, vehicles, and outdoor areas such as landfills. Notably, New Zealand shows the strongest correlation, with potential urban fire increases estimated at 40% by 2100 if warming exceeds 4 degrees Celsius. This underscores the urgent need for effective fire prevention strategies, such as enhanced fire fuel management practices.

It is important to note that the analysis has limitations, specifically the absence of data from Africa and South America. Additionally, the study may not fully incorporate the implications of the rising numbers of electric vehicles on vehicle fire statistics. These factors may influence the overall findings and future predictions related to urban fire risks.

The study highlights the escalating threat of urban fires as a consequence of climate change, particularly under high emissions scenarios. The potential impacts on human life and infrastructure are significant, with a clear need for proactive fire prevention measures. By limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the potential damage from urban fires may be significantly reduced. Overall, the research offers valuable insights for developing strategies to mitigate the risk of fires in urban environments.

Original Source: www.aa.com.tr