ISW Warns Cutting Ukraine Aid Would Empower Russia and Threaten Global Stability
The ISW warns that cutting US military aid to Ukraine would weaken America’s negotiation stance and benefit Russia. Following a contentious meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy, aid suspension is under consideration. Since the invasion, the US has provided over $65.9 billion in support, crucial for Ukraine’s defense against Russian advances. The ISW highlights broader geopolitical risks tied to abandoning Ukraine, which could embolden US adversaries.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently issued a warning regarding the potential cessation of military support for Ukraine by the United States. Such action could undermine America’s negotiating position and inadvertently favor Russia on the battlefield. The Trump administration is reportedly contemplating halting military aid to Ukraine following a contentious meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on February 28, although no decision has been finalized.
The primary objective of the Oval Office meeting was to discuss a mineral agreement between the US and Ukraine, which ultimately fell apart amid heated exchanges. President Trump criticized President Zelenskyy for failing to pursue peace negotiations and for his reluctance to make concessions to Russia. Zelenskyy argued that any ceasefire necessitates security guarantees from Russia to ensure compliance, citing previous broken agreements.
Since the onset of the invasion, the US has committed over $65.9 billion in assistance to Ukraine, becoming its largest military supporter. President Zelenskyy has noted that without this backing, Ukraine’s chances of victory are severely diminished. The ISW has drawn a direct connection between interruptions in Western support and Russian military successes, indicating that a slowdown in aid has allowed Russia to make territorial advancements in the past.
Currently, the continuous flow of Western military support has been pivotal in slowing Russian advances and crippling their defense industrial capabilities. Ukrainian forces have successfully utilized advanced US-supplied systems such as the Patriot air defense and HIMARS long-range strike, causing considerable damage to Russian forces while limiting their territorial gains. This military pressure, paired with Russia’s economic difficulties anticipated in 2025, provides the US with significant leverage in potential peace negotiations.
The ISW analysis warned that suspending military aid would embolden President Vladimir Putin to escalate demands and strengthen his belief in achieving total victory through military means. Additionally, they indicated that reducing assistance to Ukraine could diminish US influence globally and embolden adversaries including Iran, North Korea, and China.
Russia’s reliance on Iranian drones and North Korean weapons further complicates the conflict. The continuing US support for Ukraine is viewed as a testament to America’s commitment to defending democratic nations against ongoing aggression. The ISW cautions that abandoning Ukraine may signal to adversaries that the United States could similarly withdraw support for other allies, potentially inviting further challenges to US commitments worldwide.
In conclusion, the analysis by the ISW emphasizes that suspending military aid to Ukraine could have severe implications not only for the Ukraine conflict but also for global geopolitical stability. Continuous US support strengthens Ukraine’s defense capabilities and signifies America’s commitment to protecting democracies. A withdrawal of this aid might embolden adversaries and undermine US influence across the world.
Original Source: euromaidanpress.com
