Syria’s Future After the Collapse of Assad’s Regime

The article explores the potential fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, detailing its history, the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the implications for the future. It discusses the regime’s initial social compact, the revolution’s evolution, the shifting landscape of opposition, and the uncertainty of what comes next amid ongoing conflict and minority concerns.

Millions of Syrians are rejoicing over the apparent fall of Bashar al-Assad’s oppressive regime, aided by the swift rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This unexpected turn raises critical questions regarding HTS’s ideology and future dynamics for Syrian minorities. Anand Gopal, in conversation with Bhaskar Sunkara, elaborates on the origins of Syrian discontent leading to the revolution and its aftermath.

The roots of the Assad regime are traced back to the Baath Party coup in the 1960s, which established a regime that initially focused on land reform and social welfare. However, under Hafez al-Assad’s leadership from 1970, the regime shifted to a repressive model wherein dissent was brutally silenced. Assad provided minimal economic redistribution in exchange for complete political submission, fostering a culture of fear and oppression.

Bashar al-Assad’s rise in 2000 marked the deterioration of the initial social contract, as neoliberal reforms dismantled the welfare state without implementing political reforms. The collapse of economic security prompted the 2011 uprising, characterized by mass peaceful protests. The regime’s violent crackdown transformed these protests into an armed rebellion, known as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), in response to the escalating brutality against civilians.

The Assad regime retained support during the conflict primarily from the Alawites and certain Sunni bourgeois class groups. Fears of persecution among minority communities inhibited broader opposition against the regime, allowing it to maintain a social base despite rampant corruption and the loss of effective governance.

Initially, the opposition was diverse but became increasingly Islamist as the revolution progressed and the secular rebels proved ineffective. With the pervasive influence of political Islam and a history of state repression against the Left, the support for more coherent Islamist factions grew, often characterized by a focused agenda on local needs like food distribution.

Assad’s weakening authority, caused by regional dynamics and internal decay, led to a sudden shift in power. Historical patterns show that the regime has faced near-collapse multiple times, yet its structure was reinforced by foreign (particularly Russian and Iranian) backing. Recent developments indicate the regime’s fragility, exposing deep-rooted issues of corruption and inability to maintain order.

The fall of the regime marks a significant juncture in Syria’s history, allowing the prospects for establishing a more humane governance system. The enduring suffering of the Syrian populace, characterized by loss and displacement, has instilled a sense of hope after decades of tyranny. Popular celebrations, including those in Christian neighborhoods, challenge the narrative of fear and oppression under the Assad regime.

However, the path forward remains uncertain. Although HTS presents itself positively, its track record includes repressive tactics against dissent in areas under its control. Additionally, the presence of various factions, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, introduces complexities that provoke fears of potential ethnic cleansing, especially against Kurdish communities.

While the conclusion of a brutal regime is celebrated, the fight for democracy and stability is just beginning in a Syria still grappling with multifaceted challenges. The opportunity for political discourse, long suppressed under Assad’s rule, has emerged, suggesting that the road ahead will necessitate vigilance and activism to shape a democratic future.

In summary, the potential fall of Bashar al-Assad heralds a significant change in Syria, fraught with complexity yet filled with optimism for its people. While the regime’s collapse offers a chance for renewed political engagement, the challenges ahead are substantial, including the rise of Islamist factions and the threat posed by regional powers. The outcome will depend on the people’s ability to mobilize for a democratic future after decades of dictatorship.

Original Source: jacobin.com