Young Population Believe BNP to Get 39% of Votes in National Polls
- Survey shows young voters favor BNP with 38.76% of the votes.
- Jamaat-e-Islami projected to receive 21.45% in the upcoming elections.
- NCP might secure 15.84% of total votes in the polls.
- Optimism for free and fair elections sits at 40.89% among respondents.
- Majority of youth, about 76.78%, intend on participating in the upcoming elections.
Young Voters Predict BNP Lead in Upcoming National Polls
Young Bangladeshi citizens display a forecasted shift in their political alliances, according to a recent survey by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem). The survey showcased a youthful demographic’s sentiments towards the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), predicting that the party would garner around 38.76% of the votes in the upcoming 13th national election. The changing political landscape does not stop there, as participants in the survey observed that Jamaat-e-Islami may secure 21.45% of the vote, while the National Citizen Party (NCP), born out of last summer’s uprising that saw the fall of the Awami League (AL) government, is projected to hold 15.84% of total votes.
Potential Alliances Could Shift Electoral Balance
Notably, the survey conveys additional insights into the shifting voter sentiments, as it anticipates that other Islamist parties could collectively acquire about 4.59% of the votes. The dynamics could change further if the NCP, Jamaat, and other Islamist factions decide to join forces and form an electoral alliance, a topic that is heating up within political circles lately. The former ruling party, the Awami League, is highlighted in this report too; if they were given the green light to participate in elections, the data suggests a potential 15.02% of votes could be directed toward them, despite their police-enforced ban from political activities as of May 10, 2025.
Participants Show Mixed Feelings About Election Integrity
During a roundtable discussion at Brac Centre Inn in Dhaka, Sanem Executive Director Selim Raihan shared the findings and reminded attendees that while the survey sample is not comprehensive, it reveals insights into participant sentiment regarding the elections. Specifically, 1,935 out of 2,003 individuals, or approximately 96.6%, responded to questions about their voting intentions. On the topic of fairness in the upcoming elections, a moderate 40.89% expressed optimism regarding the prospect of free and fair elections, with 27.91% indicating they were very optimistic.
In summary, the recent Sanem survey sheds light on the evolving political preferences among Bangladesh’s young voters, with clear indications that BNP is the frontrunner while the political environment remains uncertain with possible coalitions. The optimism regarding free elections varies among respondents, reflecting a cautious yet engaged youth demographic. As the general elections approach in early 2026, these sentiments will be important to watch.
