NOAA Predicts Above Average Activity for Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season with 13 to 19 named storms, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes. The upcoming season may see impacts from climate factors like warmer ocean temperatures. Residents are urged to prepare now due to challenges in local forecasting staff following recent staffing cuts. The season runs from June 1 to November 30, typically peaking in late summer.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is anticipating a notably intense Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting more storms than the norm. According to Ken Graham, meteorologist and director of the National Weather Service, between 13 to 19 named storms are expected. Notably, when wind speeds reach 39 mph, storms receive names, adding a further layer to their tracking.

Of the predicted named storms, NOAA expects six to ten to escalate into hurricanes, which are categorized by wind speeds greater than 74 mph. Additionally, three to five of these hurricanes could reach major status, classified as Category 3 or above. However, specifics on which storms might make landfall or impact U.S. coasts are not included in the predictions. As a result, forecasters are urging citizens to prepare their emergency kits now.

“It’s a good time to go out there and get your supplies and your kit and put it together,” Graham advised, emphasizing the need for readiness without the chaos of supply shortages that often occur right before storms.

The impetus behind NOAA’s above-average forecast includes rising ocean temperatures, a phenomenon linked to climate change. Graham remarked, “The warmer ocean temperatures is really consistent with us being in a more active season.” Additionally, heightened activity from the West African Monsoon is anticipated, which is known to generate storms that make their way across the Atlantic towards the United States.

The storm forecasts coincide with staffing challenges faced by many National Weather Service offices. After a round of staff cuts and voluntary retirements initiated during former President Donald Trump’s administration, nearly 600 workers have departed in the early months of 2025. Nevertheless, NOAA leadership reassures that the National Hurricane Center, which plays a crucial role during the hurricane season, remains adequately staffed.

“We are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go,” stated Laura Grimm, the acting administrator of NOAA, asserting that hurricane preparedness is a top priority. Local forecasting offices, however, are struggling with vacancies that loom large as they are tasked with localizing forecasts during and after a hurricane’s landfall.

Graham continued, emphasizing, “I’m going to make sure that our offices have the resources that they need to ensure every warning goes out,” expressing his commitment to maintaining capacity for long-term staffing and operational success.

The hurricane season commences on June 1 and concludes on November 30, typically peaking in late summer through early fall. Notably, NOAA’s predictions align closely with forecasts from universities and private research groups, which on average predict about eight Atlantic hurricanes for 2025.

Last year, NOAA marked its highest hurricane season prediction yet, which culminated in 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, with significant impacts felt when five storms made landfall in the United States. Two of the most notable, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton, caused extensive damage and loss of life due to events like rapid intensification of winds as they approached the coast. This phenomenon, increasingly likely due to global warming, raises concerns as a 2023 study noted that the probability of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic experiencing rapid intensification increased by about 29% from 2001 to 2020 compared to earlier decades.

As the season approaches, officials stress the importance of preparation and vigilance against the potential for severe weather.

As NOAA forecasts a busier-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season, preparedness is critical. The agency predicts 13 to 19 named storms and potentially several major hurricanes due to warmer ocean temperatures and climatic factors. Challenges in workforce staffing may affect local forecasting efforts, but leadership emphasizes readiness at the National Hurricane Center. Citizens are urged to ready their emergency supplies well ahead of the storm season as June 1 approaches.

Original Source: www.nbcnews.com