Navigating Change in Syria: Perspectives on the Transitional Government

Syria is in a transformative phase post-Assad, marked by cautious optimism according to analyst Ghassan Ibrahim. Challenges include institutional failure, economic hardship, and the legacy of conflict, yet opportunities for diplomatic relations and stability are emerging under President Al-Sharaa’s leadership.

As Syria navigates a transformative phase following the end of the Assad regime, analysts express cautious optimism regarding the potential for change. Ghassan Ibrahim, a London-based Syria expert featured on “Frankly Speaking,” discusses the significant challenges and opportunities facing President Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s transitional government. He emphasizes that despite a spirit of hope, the nation is still grappling with institutional failures, economic struggles, and a legacy of devastation left by the previous administration.

The economic situation in Syria remains dire, with over 90 percent of the population living in poverty and a lack of essential services. Critical natural resources such as oil and gas are largely untapped, and a significant exodus of skilled individuals has resulted in a detrimental talent shortage. Ibrahim notes that the current environment does not encourage the return of these professionals, thereby stunting progress towards rebuilding.

While conflicts linger, Ibrahim highlights that the absence of widespread sectarian violence following Assad’s departure represents a notable achievement. There have been localized incidents of violence, yet the situation is managed to prevent escalation. He remains hopeful about the country’s future, stating that substantial work is required to realize its potential and stabilize the political landscape.

President Al-Sharaa’s diplomatic endeavors, starting with a visit to Saudi Arabia, are seen as strategic moves to reshape Syria’s alliances. Ibrahim points out that Syria seeks to position itself within a framework of stability and modern governance, indicating that partnerships with regional powers like the UAE are vital for reintegration into the international community.

The political climate is complicated by Syria’s relations with Turkey, which, despite historic tensions, holds potential for peace but may also reignite regional rivalries. Ibrahim warns that Turkish involvement could complicate relations with Israel and exacerbate domestic tensions, especially concerning Kurdish groups.

Regarding Israel, Ibrahim highlights that the new leadership is adopting a cautious approach to avoid conflicts, recognizing that stability is more beneficial than continued hostility. He sees potential for pragmatic diplomacy, suggesting that Syria may prioritize statehood over past militant engagements.

Iran’s influence, conversely, poses challenges, with reports of unrest linked to Iranian-backed groups. Ibrahim notes that while Iran’s capacity to destabilize remains, its overall influence in Syria appears to be declining. He advocates for normalization between Damascus and Tehran, contingent on a cease of destabilizing activities.

One significant barrier to Syria’s future stability is the ongoing sanctions from the US and Europe, which Ibrahim argues have shifted from isolating Assad to hindering the new government’s recovery efforts. He warns that unless sanctions are lifted, popular discontent may result in renewed demonstrations and crises.

The recent killings attributed to former regime supporters reflect the precarious state of affairs within the country. While President Al-Sharaa’s initial clemency policies aimed to foster reconciliation, they may inadvertently have allowed discord to fester. Ibrahim recognizes the necessity for a balanced governance approach in a fractured society.

Syria’s ongoing geopolitical maneuvers signify a desire for autonomy rather than a position of vulnerability as a political pawn. Ibrahim relays that Syria is working to mediate between Turkey and Kurdish forces, striving for a balance that avoids entering conflicts on behalf of external powers.

While seeking engagement with Western nations, Syria continues to maintain its alliance with Russia, viewing it as a strategic partner capable of mediating discussions, particularly with Israel. Ibrahim indicates that positive relations with Moscow could facilitate eventual agreements beneficial for all parties.

Concluding remarks from Ibrahim reflect Syria’s shift in narrative, emphasizing a rejection of aggression and the pursuit of economic normalization, including relations with Israel. He envisions a future where Syria emerges as a stable nation, fostering development and trade with a broad spectrum of countries.

In summary, as Syria embarks on a new chapter following the Assad regime, analysts like Ghassan Ibrahim express cautious optimism regarding the transitional government led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. While significant challenges such as economic hardship, institutional collapse, and external pressures persist, there are signs of progress, particularly in diplomatic relations and a reduction in sectarian violence. The future of Syria hinges on effective governance, the lifting of sanctions, and the fostering of regional cooperation, which could restore hope for its citizens.

Original Source: www.arabnews.pk