Ending a 40-Year Kurdish Insurgency: A Historical Turning Point…

The cessation of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency signifies a pivotal moment for Turkey and Syria, influenced by post-Gaza conflict developments. Abdullah Öcalan’s call for peace marks the first peaceful resolution to a Kurdish insurgency in Turkey’s history. The growing influence of the Kurds amid changing regional dynamics poses strategic challenges for Turkey, particularly regarding its relationship with Israel.

The conclusion of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of Turkey and Syria, largely influenced by the events following the Gaza conflict initiated in October 2023. Historically, February 27, 2025, is anticipated to be recognized as a pivotal date, especially as Kurdish influence may potentially be manipulated by Israel against Turkish interests. This situation has prompted overtures towards Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), signaling a move towards peace.

The expected cessation of hostilities from the PKK signifies the first instance in the Turkish republic’s history that a Kurdish insurgency is concluding peacefully, as the original insurgents make a voluntary choice to disband. After serving 26 years in prison, Abdullah Öcalan called for peace and the establishment of a democratic society, urging his organization to lay down their arms. The PKK responded positively, expressing intentions to comply with Öcalan’s directives.

Süleyman Demirel, a former Turkish President and Prime Minister, once highlighted the PKK’s insurgency as the most intense challenge to state authority. Historical context reveals that the denial of Kurdish identity led to several significant rebellions from 1925 to 1937, all violently suppressed. Öcalan initiated the armed struggle in 1984 and eventually was captured in 1999. His imprisonment marked a period of ideological transformation and increased influence over Kurdish populations, especially in Syria.

The geopolitical dynamics notably transformed after the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, reshaping Turkey’s concerns regarding regional security and Iranian hegemony. With Israel’s growing regional power, Turkey fears that the Kurds’ aspirations could be manipulated against its interests, particularly amidst the perceived weakening of the Iranian-led coalition. As the Syrian regime’s power dwindles, Turkey finds itself in a position of strength alongside Israel, attempting to influence the new political order in Damascus.

The historical ties between Kurds and Israel date back to the 1960s, and a strengthened relationship moving forward could pose a strategic dilemma for Turkey, considering the significant Kurdish population residing within its borders. The establishment of a Kurdish government in Iraq post-Gulf War and the emergence of autonomous governance in northern Syria have raised prospects for Kurdish autonomy that Turkey cannot ignore amidst changing regional dynamics.

In summary, the anticipated end of the Kurdish insurgency represents a turning point in both Turkish and Syrian history, with broader implications for the Middle East. Abdullah Öcalan’s recent call for peace suggests a potential shift towards resolution through dialogue rather than armed struggle, a historic first for the Kurdish movement. Turkey’s strategic responses to growing regional Kurdish influence—especially in light of its historical relationships with Israel—will significantly shape future geopolitical developments in the area.

Original Source: www.realinstitutoelcano.org