Anticipating The Next Major Earthquake: The Big One and Beyond
On March 29, 2025, Myanmar experienced a 7.7 magnitude earthquake, prompting renewed discussions about the anticipated “Big One.” Historically, the most potent earthquake recorded was the 1960 Valdivia Earthquake in Chile. Geological predictions suggest that The Big One may originate from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, potentially leading to widespread destruction. Both the U.S. and other regions are at risk, necessitating preparedness for future seismic events.
On March 29, 2025, a significant earthquake measuring 7.7 on the Richter scale struck Myanmar, affecting neighboring countries such as Thailand. This event prompted a somber reminder of nature’s power and the need for preparedness. Simultaneously, it reignited discussions about the anticipated earthquake known as “The Big One,” which has yet to occur but is expected due to geological predictions.
The most powerful earthquake recorded in history was the Valdivia Earthquake in Chile in 1960, reaching magnitudes between 9.4 and 9.6. The quake lasted approximately ten minutes and triggered devastating tsunamis across numerous regions, resulting in an estimated death toll of 1,000 to 6,000. Other major quakes include the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, which was measured at 9.2-9.3 and claimed over 200,000 lives, and Japan’s Tohoku-Sendai earthquake of 2011, registering 9.1.
The term “The Big One” originated from popular culture in the U.S., referring to a major earthquake predicted to occur along the San Andreas Fault in California. This concept was brought to public attention by geologists Mason Hill and Thomas Dibblee in 1953. It is forecasted that earthquakes reaching 7 to 8 on the Richter scale could occur along this fault, threatening urban areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Several films have depicted The Big One, notably “Earthquake” (1974) and “San Andreas” (2015), highlighting the destruction such an earthquake could cause in major cities. However, recent geological research suggests that a potential seismic event may originate from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, north of the San Andreas Fault. This fault line could produce earthquakes between 8 and 9.2, endangering populated urban regions in the U.S. and Canada.
Estimations indicate that casualties in the U.S. from the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake could reach into the tens of thousands, with millions displaced from their homes. The infrastructure damage is projected to be catastrophic, compounded by ineffective rescue operations resulting from disrupted communication and road systems.
Geologists assert that The Big One is likely to strike; however, predictions on the timing remain elusive. Research by Chris Goldfinger and colleagues suggests a 37% probability of an earthquake occurring by 2060. The last major event in this region transpired in the early 1700s and wreaked havoc even in Japan through resulting tsunamis. While some regard these predictions as alarmist, the possibility of such an earthquake is universally recognized.
Though the focus has often been on the seismic threats in the United States, experts warn of potential disasters elsewhere. A massive earthquake, termed The Great Himalayan Earthquake, could transpire in the Himalayas, significantly impacting northern India and neighboring Nepal. Additionally, the Marikina Valley fault system in the Philippines could experience a 7.0 earthquake, posing severe risks to Manila and surrounding areas. Again, while predictions exist, clear timelines remain elusive, underscoring the urgency of preparedness for seismic activity worldwide.
In summary, the recent earthquake in Myanmar serves as a stark reminder of nature’s destructive potential and the pressing need for preparedness. The concept of The Big One, while traditionally linked to the San Andreas Fault, may actually be associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Expected to produce significant casualties and destruction, experts continue to warn of potential devastating earthquakes in both the United States and regions such as the Himalayas and the Philippines. While precise timings remain uncertain, the consensus is clear: substantial earthquakes are inevitable, necessitating comprehensive disaster preparedness strategies.
Original Source: indianexpress.com
