AccuWeather Anticipates Near to Above Average Atlantic Hurricane…

AccuWeather forecasts a near to above average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, predicting 13-18 named storms, including 7-10 hurricanes. Factors influencing this prediction include warm ocean temperatures, El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases, and the African Easterly Jet. Preparedness is emphasized for residents in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, especially considering the potential for significant storm impacts.

AccuWeather experts predict that the upcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be classified as “near to above average.” Residents of the Virgin Islands are encouraged to prepare and stay informed about potential hurricanes during this season, which spans from June 1 to November 30. The forecast indicates the possibility of 13 to 18 named storms, with 7 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher, alongside 3 to 6 direct impacts on the United States.

Several factors contribute to this forecast, such as unusually warm ocean water temperatures across the Atlantic, the positioning of the Bermuda-Azores High that influences cyclone trajectories, and potential tropical waves originating from West Africa. According to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, the chance of more than 18 named storms is estimated at 20%. The report also discusses the role of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patterns in shaping tropical developments.

During the La Niña cycle, which is currently affecting global weather patterns, ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific sink significantly, leading to decreased wind shear in the Atlantic that facilitates cyclone formation. Conversely, the El Niño cycle typically brings about increased wind shear, obstructing storm development. NOAA emphasizes the significant global impacts of both ENSO patterns on weather, ecosystems, and economies.

The ENSO-neutral phase, where neither El Niño nor La Niña occurs, is expected to be present during parts of the hurricane season. Periods of ENSO-neutral often exhibit average ocean temperatures and tropical rainfall patterns. DaSilva highlights that neutral conditions may foster an active hurricane season, albeit to a lesser degree compared to La Niña.

The potential for more robust tropical waves emerging from Africa is bolstered by the La Niña weather pattern. The strength of the African Easterly Jet, which produces strong easterly winds, can enhance these waves. Moreover, current sea surface temperatures are significantly higher than historical averages, with a particularly warm Gulf and Caribbean, which could favor tropical cyclone formation.

The Bermuda-Azores High will influence storm trajectories throughout the season. If the high-pressure system is positioned south and east, storms may stay away from land; however, a more robust high could lead storms toward the Caribbean and Gulf regions. DaSilva mentioned that the ongoing La Niña conditions combined with warm ocean temperatures might accelerate early season development.

DaSilva explained that AccuWeather’s predictions were informed by an analysis of past seasons with similar conditions. Notably, the 2025 season could mirror the 2017 season, which experienced significant storms like Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Historical analogs from years with similar atmospheric conditions, including 1965 and 2017, were leveraged to anticipate vulnerable areas.

In light of these forecasts, it is essential for residents in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to establish comprehensive hurricane preparedness plans. DaSilva advises against complacency due to a lack of recent storm impacts, stressing the importance of being ready for potential direct impacts and recognizing heightened rip-current risks.

Further forecasts and developments will be released prior to the hurricane season start on June 1. However, residents are urged to remain vigilant as tropical systems may emerge before this date. Individuals can access vital weather alerts and information from VITEMA and the National Weather Service, while daily forecasts can be found on the Source Weather Page.

In summary, AccuWeather’s prediction of a near to above average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season highlights the importance of preparedness among residents in vulnerable regions such as the Virgin Islands. Significant factors influencing storm activity include ocean temperatures and ENSO cycles, which may also alter the patterns of tropical wave formations. As residents are urged to remain proactive and vigilant in their hurricane preparations, attention to official forecasts will be crucial as the season approaches.

Original Source: stcroixsource.com