Projected Multi-Hazard Displacement in Somalia for Q2 2025

Somalia’s Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for 2025 identifies 30 districts at risk of significant displacement, with 124,249 projected displacements. Key affected districts include Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, driven mainly by drought and conflict.

In the second quarter of 2025, Somalia is focusing on 30 districts as outlined in the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP). Among these districts, 11 are identified within the top 15 that are expected to experience significant displacements. Collectively, a total of 124,249 displacements are projected for this period.

The top five districts anticipated to contribute to the majority of displacements are Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, with 95,689 displacements anticipated across these areas. Specifically, Banadir expects 39,251 displacements (a 4% rise), followed by Baydhaba with 21,053 (3% increase), Luuq at 13,098 (12% increase), Kismaayo with 12,862 (7% increase), and Afmadow estimating 9,425 displacements (19% increase).

While drought is the principal driver of displacements across the majority of districts, conflict is anticipated to be a significant factor in Luuq, where 56% of movements are expected to originate. Afmadow is also projected to experience notable conflict, with 39% of displacements originating from this district, illustrating the multifaceted nature of the crisis.

In summary, Somalia’s second quarter of 2025 will witness a focus on the urgent need for humanitarian response across 30 districts, amid projected displacements of 124,249 individuals. Key districts experiencing the highest displacements include Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, with drought and conflict identified as primary causes. Planning efforts must address the impending humanitarian crisis effectively.

Original Source: reliefweb.int