Sudan’s Civil War: A Critical Juncture and Potential Outcomes
Sudan’s civil war is reaching a crucial phase, with military gains against the RSF failing to indicate a swift resolution. Fighting has resulted in over 28,000 deaths and led to mass displacement and famine. A de facto partition of Sudan is emerging, with both sides establishing rival administrations, complicating peace efforts and humanitarian conditions.
The civil war in Sudan is at a crucial turning point after nearly two years of conflict that has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and displaced millions. Recent military advances have allowed the Sudanese army to reclaim significant areas, including the capital, Khartoum, although the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) maintain control in regions such as Darfur. The RSF has yet to acknowledge these losses, suggesting a protracted struggle ahead.
Fighting resumed in April 2023 between the military and the RSF after previously cooperating to resist the establishment of civilian governance. The conflict has escalated, resulting in approximately 28,000 confirmed fatalities, with the true toll believed to be much higher. The humanitarian crisis continues to deepen, with over 14 million people displaced and parts of the country facing famine conditions.
While recent military victories may signal a shift in the conflict, the lack of meaningful peace negotiations raises concerns that Sudan could see a de facto division between military and RSF-controlled territories. Military leader Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan shows no inclination to enter into peace talks, while RSF commander Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo remains committed to continuing the fight, complicating the path to resolution.
The formation of a ‘parallel government’ by the RSF and its allies, as outlined in a charter created in Nairobi, highlights the potential for two competing authorities in Sudan. While Burhan has also discussed developing a transitional government, it opens the possibility for further fragmentation as both factions seek support amid ongoing conflicts. The RSF’s charter advocates for a secular and decentralized state, representing various communities in Sudan that aspire for greater autonomy from central rule.
Originating from the notorious Janjaweed militias created by former president Omar al-Bashir, the RSF is embroiled in allegations of mass atrocities during the current war. The Biden Administration has issued sanctions against Dagalo, citing genocidal actions by the RSF, although he has denied these accusations. The military is also facing similar allegations of abuses, further complicating the ethical landscape of the conflict.
The situation in Sudan remains volatile and complex, with intensified hostilities between military factions and the RSF. Despite military advancements, the absence of peace talks and the establishment of competing governments could lead to an entrenched and devastating conflict. It is imperative for the international community to remain vigilant and consider intervention strategies as the humanitarian crisis continues to escalate and millions remain at risk in Sudan.
Original Source: www.newsday.com
