Australia May Experience Most Active Cyclone Season in Recent Years

A tropical low may form off the WA coast by Friday, with a possibility to develop into a cyclone. The season has seen nine confirmed tropical cyclones, and an increase in rainfall is expected across northern Australia, including recently inundated Queensland. Models suggest possible cyclone names and elevated precipitation levels in the upcoming weeks.

A tropical low is poised to develop near 500 kilometers off the northern coast of Western Australia (WA) by Friday, moving slowly towards land with the potential to strengthen into a cyclone. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) confirmed that nine tropical cyclones have already formed this season, marking the highest count in three years. Enhanced humidity from the north will lead to heavy rainfall across northern Australia over the next fortnight.

Potential names for the cyclone are Courtney or Dianne, depending on the development of a separate tropical low south of the Cocos Islands. Queensland recently experienced heavy rainfall, with Townsville recording 301 millimeters in 24 hours, the highest since January 1998. The Northern Territory (NT) and Kimberley region in WA are also expected to receive significant rain as the monsoon trough enhances tropical activity.

The monsoon trough, a band of converging moist winds, typically initiates tropical cyclones in Australia. With conditions favorable for cyclone formation, and water temperatures exceeding 31 degrees Celsius offshore, there exists a possibility for the system to develop into a cyclone as it nears the coast. Despite a 10% chance of intensification this weekend, forecasts indicate a gradual increase in cyclone probabilities to around 30% early next week.

Models suggest that the cyclone will likely track westward, parallel to the Pilbara coast. However, past experiences illustrate the unpredictability of cyclone forecasting, suggesting that predictions may change rapidly. Alongside this, rain is expected to spread into northern and central Australia, impacting regions like Queensland and the NT, where significant flooding has been reported.

Recent rainfall has resulted in flooding along numerous rivers, particularly in northern Queensland, with Garradunga receiving 872 millimeters in a week. This weather system is set to bring persistent rain across northern Australia over the coming week, with accumulations potentially exceeding 100 millimeters in various regions.

Long-term forecasts hint at continued above-average rainfall into early April, with an 80% chance of median falls across parts of northern Australia. Thus, cyclone activity may also be elevated through the rest of the wet season, indicating that an autumn tally of 12 named storms would mark the busiest cyclone season in 19 years.

The forthcoming cyclone season is expected to be particularly active, with indications of heavy rain and the possibility of cyclones developing off the Australian coast. Significant rainfall has already impacted northern Australia, leading to flooding and increased moisture levels. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts sustained rainfall over the next weeks, hinting at a busy cyclone season potentially unmatched in nearly two decades.

Original Source: www.abc.net.au