Overview of Current Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Pacific and Indian Oceans
The February 4, 2025 Tropical Cyclone Activity Report details active cyclones including 11S (Faida), 13S (Vince), 14S (Taliah), and 15P, with warnings for some. Northeast and Central Pacific regions show no active cyclones as seasons conclude. Cyclone developments suggest varying potential for intensification based on environmental conditions and land interactions.
The latest Tropical Cyclone Activity Report, dated February 4, 2025, from the Pacific Disaster Center outlines significant cyclone activity across various regions, including the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. Currently active systems include Tropical Cyclones 11S (Faida), 13S (Vince), 14S (Taliah), and 15P, with specific warnings issued for some. The Northeast and Central Pacific regions are experiencing a calm period with no cyclones present as their respective hurricane seasons have concluded.
Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida) is situated approximately 113 nautical miles southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and is under a final warning. With sustained winds of 25 knots and gusts of up to 35 knots, it is expected to track west-northwest and make landfall in Madagascar within 12 hours. Moderate conditions may allow the cyclone to intensify briefly before interaction with land reduces its strength significantly.
Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located 1741 nautical miles east of Port Louis, Mauritius, with sustained winds of 95 knots and gusts reaching 115 knots. Satellite imagery reveals a partially exposed low-level circulation, indicating possible future intensification over the Mozambique Channel if the cyclone maintains its structure and interaction with favorable conditions.
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah), currently positioned approximately 760 nautical miles east-southeast of the Cocos Islands, has sustained winds of 80 knots and gusts to 100 knots. The system’s developing eye suggests potential future intensification, characterized by asymmetry and limited convection, though environmental conditions are marginally favorable due to shear and mid-level dry air.
Tropical Cyclone 15P is approximately 310 nautical miles southwest of Suva, Fiji, and carries a final warning, exhibiting sustained winds of 35 knots. The system has shown signs of weakening due to unfavorable environmental conditions. An area referred to as Invest 92P, located roughly 308 nautical miles west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, is experiencing favorable developments with winds estimated at 28 to 33 knots, indicating a high potential for significant cyclone formation within the next 24 hours.
In conclusion, the Tropical Cyclone Activity Report highlights the current status of multiple cyclones in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, with distinct warnings and forecasts regarding their expected paths and intensification possibilities. The report indicates challenging conditions for certain systems, particularly due to land interactions and environmental factors affecting their development. Continued monitoring and updates will be essential as these systems evolve.
Original Source: www.pdc.org
