Tropical Cyclone Activity Report: January 30, 2025 – Update on Cyclones and Disturbances
The January 30, 2025 Tropical Cyclone Activity Report highlights two active cyclones in the South Indian Ocean, Cyclone 11S and Cyclone 12S (Elvis), both facing environmental challenges. Additionally, disturbances Invest 96P and Invest 99S are being monitored, with limited potential for significant development.
The Pacific Disaster Center has released its Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for January 30, 2025, detailing two significant cyclones, 11S and 12S (Elvis), currently active in the South Indian Ocean. Cyclone 11S, positioned approximately 590 nautical miles southwest of Diego Garcia, is battling to maintain its tropical storm intensity due to dry air and easterly shear. Meanwhile, Cyclone 12S, located about 619 nautical miles east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, shows signs of intensification despite increasing shear.
Tropical Cyclone 11S is forecasted to maintain a westward trajectory for the next 12 to 18 hours, with a potential slowdown in speed due to a shift in the steering gradient. It will likely pass north of Mauritius within 72 hours and then shift to a southwestward path towards Madagascar, where conditions may become favorable for re-intensification.
Tropical Cyclone 12S has experienced a resurgence in deep convective activity and is set to continue southeastward. However, the system is expected to weaken after 24 hours as it undergoes extratropical transition, possibly evolving into a gale-force extratropical low. The transition is anticipated to complete within 48 hours.
Additionally, two areas of disturbed weather are under observation, labeled Invest 96P and Invest 99S. Invest 96P is located near Cairns, Australia, displaying a disorganized low-level circulation with estimated winds of 18-23 knots, yet its potential for significant cyclone development remains low. In contrast, Invest 99S, positioned southwest of Christmas Island, is showing signs of organization with sustained winds of 20-25 knots, although significant cyclone formation is still deemed unlikely.
The Pacific Disaster Center regularly monitors and reports on tropical cyclone activities across various ocean basins. This report focuses on two active cyclones in the South Indian Ocean, providing an overview of their positions, intensities, and projected paths. It also discusses other disturbances that could potentially develop into cyclones, indicating the dynamic nature of meteorological conditions in the region. Cyclonic activity is assessed based on environmental factors such as sea surface temperature, wind shear, and other atmospheric conditions that influence cyclone development and movement.
In summary, the current tropical cyclone landscape includes Cyclone 11S and Cyclone 12S (Elvis), both exhibiting challenges due to environmental factors. While 11S has the potential to re-intensify as it approaches Madagascar, 12S is likely to weaken in the coming days. Additionally, the emergence of Invest 96P and Invest 99S poses minimal immediate threats but highlights the ongoing monitoring of cyclone conditions in the Pacific region.
Original Source: www.pdc.org
