Increasing Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Linked to Climate Change
The frequency of tropical cyclones has remained steady, averaging 47 annually since 1980. However, their intensity has significantly increased, with average wind speeds rising from 182 kph to 192 kph. The proportion of category five cyclones has escalated, highlighting a concerning trend linked to climate change, as noted by climatologist Robert Vautard. 42 cyclones occurred in 2024, including Hurricane Milton, the strongest of the year, exacerbating humanitarian crises in affected regions.
Recent findings indicate that while the frequency of tropical cyclones has remained consistent, their intensity has markedly escalated over the past four decades. Data gathered by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reveals that an average of 47 cyclones have occurred each year since 1980. Notably, the average maximum wind speed of these storms has increased from 182 kilometers per hour (kph) during the period of 1981 to 2010 to 192 kph in the last decade, representing a 5 percent rise. Furthermore, the incidence of category five cyclones has surged from one in ten to approximately 1.4 in ten cyclones, indicating a staggering 40 percent growth in the most devastating storms on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
This alarming trend is supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has emphasized the growing threat of destructive cyclones due to climate change, particularly for categories four and five. Climatologist Robert Vautard warns that humanitarian crises resulting from these cyclones are primarily exacerbated by societal poverty and inadequate protective measures for vulnerable populations.
The Atlantic storm season of 2024 has already witnessed 42 tropical cyclones by 15 December, with Hurricane Milton emerging as the year’s most potent storm, reaching wind speeds of 278 kph when it struck the United States. The West Pacific region has been severely affected, suffering from 15 typhoons and extensive damage. Cyclone Chido recently impacted Mayotte, causing fatalities and numerous injuries. Authorities continue to assess the situation as displaced families remain in precarious conditions after the disaster.
The analysis of tropical cyclones is critical in understanding the impacts of climate change on natural disasters. Tropical cyclones, also referred to as hurricanes and typhoons, play a pivotal role in global weather patterns. Over the last four decades, the consistency in the number of cyclones juxtaposed with an increase in their intensity suggests a significant shift in weather dynamics, attributable to climate change. As highlighted by international agencies, the implications of supercharged storms on vulnerable communities are profound, necessitating immediate attention from policymakers and climate scientists alike.
In conclusion, while the number of tropical cyclones has remained steady since 1980, their increasing intensity presents new challenges in disaster preparedness and response. The significant rise in wind speed and the frequency of category five cyclones underscore the urgency of addressing climate change’s ramifications. Enhanced societal resilience against these natural disasters is indispensable to mitigate the humanitarian crises they engender.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
