The Intensifying Threat of Hurricanes in a Warming Climate: Insights from Helene and Milton

A study by the World Weather Attribution team indicates that climate change increased Hurricane Helene’s rainfall by 10% and wind speed by 11%. With similar conditions predicted for Hurricane Milton, scientists warn that fossil fuel reliance will likely lead to more severe hurricanes, resulting in catastrophic flooding and increased inland damage. Helene caused significant destruction and fatalities, signifying the growing frequency and intensity of hurricanes due to a warming climate.

A recent study conducted by the World Weather Attribution team has revealed that human-induced climate change significantly intensified Hurricane Helene, which struck shortly before Hurricane Milton threatened the Florida coast. Specifically, researchers determined that climate change increased Helene’s rainfall by approximately 10% and its wind speed by around 11%. The study observed that the high sea temperatures contributing to the storm were 200 to 500 times more likely due to climate change, with Gulf of Mexico sea temperatures approximately 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above average. Ben Clarke, a climate researcher at Imperial College London and co-author of the study, articulated that the elevated temperatures allowed the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which significantly heightened the rainfall totals of the hurricane, even before considering the impacts of climate change. Similar conditions are anticipated for Hurricane Milton, prompting scientists to warn that continued reliance on fossil fuels could lead to more hurricanes akin to Helene, producing catastrophic floods that extend well inland rather than just along the coast. Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in Florida, caused extensive damage due to a record storm surge of 15 feet (4.57 meters) and sustained winds reaching 140 miles per hour (225.31 kilometers per hour). This storm resulted in over 230 fatalities and left millions without vital services, making it the deadliest hurricane in the U.S. since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. With more than 40 trillion gallons of rain deposited in the region, the flooding was unprecedented and would have been less severe without the warming climate. The frequency of hurricanes of Helene’s intensity, which was once expected every 130 years, is now approximately 2.5 times more likely. The World Weather Attribution team applies rapid climate attribution methods that, although not peer-reviewed, utilize peer-reviewed approaches for assessing climate change impacts on individual weather events. A parallel analysis conducted by researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab indicated that climate change led to a 50% increase in rainfall in several regions affected by Helene, making such rainfall occurrences 20 times more likely due to global warming. While there are uncertainties surrounding the exact extent of climate change’s influence on storms, Kim Cobb, director of the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, emphasized that Helene and Milton should prompt urgent conversations concerning emergency preparedness and resilience planning against the backdrop of worsening climate projections. She noted, “We know that it is increasing the power and devastation of these storms.” Meanwhile, Ben Clarke warns of the ongoing control humanity has over future trajectories regarding climate risk, contingent on energy consumption and the transition from fossil fuels. This dual occurrence of extreme hurricanes underscores a potential future driven by climate change if immediate action is not taken to mitigate its effects.

The increasing intensity of hurricanes like Helene and Milton is attributed primarily to human-induced climate change, influencing various weather patterns and phenomena. The rapid rise in sea temperatures, which are linked to climate change, creates conditions that significantly enhance storm severity. This background elucidates the pressing need for thorough studies on the attribution of extreme weather events to climate change and the importance of preparedness for the potentially disastrous impacts of such events.

In conclusion, the findings of the World Weather Attribution study highlight the pressing reality of climate change’s impact on hurricane intensity and rainfall. As evidenced by Hurricane Helene and the impending threat posed by Hurricane Milton, the statistical likelihood of severe hurricanes in affected regions is on the rise due to human activities. With an urgent call for enhanced resilience planning and a transition away from fossil fuels, the future of hurricane frequency and severity hinges on decisive actions taken today.

Original Source: abcnews.go.com