The Curious Case of the Missing October Surprise
Ms. Anderson discusses the absence of an anticipated October surprise in the 2024 presidential race, reflecting on previous unexpected events and drawing comparisons to the plot twist in the film “Contact.” She emphasizes that while observers seek surprises, the significant developments over the past year may have rendered surprises less impactful than anticipated.
In her guest essay, Ms. Anderson reflects on the concept of the “October surprise”—a term that traditionally refers to unexpected events that emerge late in a political campaign, which can significantly alter its trajectory. Drawing a parallel with the surprising plot twists in cinema, she recalls how the 1997 film “Contact” left her astonished, likening that delight to the current political climate where surprises seem increasingly elusive. As political observers gear up for the final month of the election campaign, Ms. Anderson notes the heightened anticipation for an October surprise, inspired by an earlier article in Politico that speculated on potential game-changing events that could disrupt the 2024 presidential race. Despite expectations, she asserts that the last year has already witnessed a series of unpredictable events, including significant court rulings on reproductive rights, an assassination attempt related to Donald Trump, and an ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Indeed, the political landscape has faced enough upheaval to challenge the notion that surprises can alter the course of events. Ms. Anderson concludes by citing Alec Ross, who controversially suggested that the aftermath of hurricanes could lead to delayed election results due to the dislocation of voters.
The article posits the idea of an October surprise in political campaigns, particularly in relation to the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Historically, October surprises have the potential to influence voter sentiment and election outcomes as a result of unexpected events occurring close to Election Day. The author juxtaposes her expectation for surprises with her recollections of being surprised by plot developments in movies, particularly in relation to political news cycles. The context includes various significant events previously thought to have the potential to reshape the political conversation, which now appear as mere backdrops in an already tumultuous political environment.
In summary, while the political arena typically brims with anticipation for unexpected events as elections approach, it appears that the unpredictability of 2024 may be characterized not by new surprises but rather by the significant events and challenges that have unfolded throughout the year. The comments by Alec Ross highlight the challenges that may face these upcoming elections, suggesting that voters may experience unforeseen complications when it comes to casting their ballots, consequently deviating from the traditional expectations of an October surprise.
Original Source: www.nytimes.com
