Tropical Disturbance in Gulf Strengthens; Depression Expected to Form Soon
A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to intensify into a tropical or subtropical depression within days. It has an 80% chance of development over the week and is anticipated to impact Florida, Mexico, and the Bahamas with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Residents are urged to stay vigilant as the situation evolves.
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The tropical disturbance currently located in the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing heightened strengthening and is projected to evolve into a tropical or subtropical depression within the next few days, as per the assessment from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). In the update provided at 2 a.m. on Saturday, the NHC indicated that the system has an 80% probability of development within a week, and a 50% likelihood of formation within the next 48 hours. Although the area of low pressure is expansive, it is generating winds that are just under gale force. According to Meteorologist Rebecca Barry from Max Defender 8, “We expect a tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane to track across the state late Tuesday night into Wednesday.” This weather system is likely to take on the next designated name of the year—Milton. Residents of Florida, along with those in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Bahamas, are urged to keep a close watch on the progress of this system as it progresses eastward or northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Rebecca Barry further noted, “It is too soon to tell what areas will be impacted the most, as that will depend heavily on landfall location.” The NHC anticipates that gusty winds and substantial rainfall will affect Florida and parts of Mexico beginning late this weekend and extending into early next week. Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli indicated that heavy rainfall is expected to commence on Sunday as the leading wave of moisture reaches Florida’s coastline. A pattern of intermittent rainfall, interspersed with dry intervals, is expected to persist through Tuesday. He cautioned, “Given that the ground is saturated after one of the rainiest wet seasons on record, any downpours will lead to flooding.” While the exact trajectory and intensity of the storm as it approaches Florida on Wednesday remain uncertain, the potential for rainfall ranging from 5 to 10 inches across Central to South Florida cannot be ruled out. Additionally, a new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa, presenting a 30% chance for development within a week as it traverses the Atlantic. The NHC has acknowledged that some development of this wave is conceivable. In the Open Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk remains a potent system, and the NHC anticipates that it will generate large swells that will reach the U.S. East Coast by Sunday. Moreover, Hurricane Leslie, located in the Tropical East Atlantic, has experienced slight strengthening while continuing its west-northwestward trajectory. For ongoing updates, residents can tune into the tracking segment titled ‘Tracking the Tropics’ which airs on Tuesdays at 12:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. CT. I would also advise reviewing the 2024 Hurricane Guide and subscribing to the Tracking the Tropics newsletter to remain informed about tropical developments.
The National Hurricane Center frequently monitors and reports on weather systems in the Atlantic and Gulf regions. Tropical disturbances can rapidly intensify, prompting warnings and advisories to mitigate potential damage and ensure public safety. Understanding these meteorological systems is vital for affected regions, especially during hurricane season when the risk of severe weather, including tropical storms and hurricanes, poses significant threats to coastal communities.
In summary, the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen into a depression within days, with potential impacts on Florida, Mexico, and the Bahamas. Residents are urged to stay informed as the situation develops, particularly due to the likelihood of heavy rainfall and flooding in the region. Monitoring updates from the National Hurricane Center and local meteorologists is essential for preparedness in the face of these developing weather patterns.
Original Source: www.wfla.com
