Forecast Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall for Greater Horn of Africa
The Greater Horn of Africa is forecasted to receive above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, covering areas like Djibouti, Eritrea, and South Sudan, among others. This rainfall pattern is crucial for annual agricultural outputs in the region, and potential flooding risks are noted, especially in South Sudan and Sudan. The forecast results from a collaborative effort among climate scientists and organizations at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum.
The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September, encompassing areas such as Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, significant portions of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. This forecast stems from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a recognized regional climate center under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This period marks an essential rainy season for the northern and western regions of the Greater Horn of Africa, typically accounting for over 90% of the annual rainfall in the northern parts and around 40% in the southern regions. The anticipated wetter conditions during this timeframe are reminiscent of the patterns observed in 1998 and 2010, which raises concerns regarding potential flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, as stated by Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC. Several countries, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda, have recently experienced severe flooding and will enter their dry season from June to September. Knowledge of seasonal climate outlooks is crucial for informed decision-making in various sectors, including agriculture, public health, and resource management. These forecasts are part of an array of resources provided by the WMO to aid the implementation of the Early Warnings for All initiative. The information was disseminated at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which convenes climate scientists along with governmental and non-governmental organizations, as well as sectors sensitive to climate variations. For more than twenty years, the WMO has supported these regional climate outlook forums, equipping stakeholders with actionable climate forecasts and information aimed at preserving lives and livelihoods, alongside enhancing agricultural productivity, water management, health initiatives, and disaster risk mitigation. In line with the WMO’s established guidelines, ICPAC has employed a comprehensive and empirical method for generating seasonal climate forecasts for the region. This methodology relies on initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs), followed by the application of three calibration techniques. Expectations for an early to normal onset of rainfall are projected for areas including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, while a delayed onset is anticipated in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan. Furthermore, the temperature forecast indicates a likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, especially in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The rainfall pattern and climate outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa are critical for the region’s agriculture, health, and resource management sectors. This region relies heavily on the rainy season from June to September, which significantly affects food security and economic stability. Understanding the climate forecasts helps stakeholders mitigate risks associated with potential adverse weather conditions such as flooding or prolonged droughts.
The forecast of above-normal rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September is pivotal for the region’s agricultural practices and overall livelihood. With the potential for flooding in specific countries and a mixed onset of rainfall expected, careful monitoring and implementation of adaptive measures will be vital for managing both risks and opportunities during this crucial season.
Original Source: wmo.int
